✓ Lyon vs Auxerre (BTTS Yes) @ 1.92x (++0.92u) ✓ Lecce vs Fiorentina (BTTS Yes) @ 1.93x (++0.93u) ✓ Pisa vs Genoa (OVER 2.5) @ 2.44x (++1.44u) ✓ Torino vs Hellas Verona (OVER 2.5) @ 2.49x (++1.49u) ✓ Real Sociedad vs Deportivo Alaves (BTTS Yes) @ 1.97x (++0.97u) ✓ Casa Pia AC vs Benfica (BTTS Yes) @ 2.09x (++1.09u) ✓ Union Berlin vs St. Pauli (BTTS Yes) @ 2.23x (++1.23u)
Expected Value Betting Platform

Find Value Bets
Before the Market Moves

Our ML models analyze 7 major European leagues to identify mispriced odds. You get alerts when edge ≥5%.

LIVE TRACK RECORDLast 115 days
257Total Bets
+15.0%ROI
+38.7uProfit
49.4%Win Rate
2.33Avg Odds
+8.8%Avg Edge
+14.1u5W-11L2-Leg Parlays
+38.3u3W-12L3-Leg Parlays
📊Pinnacle Odds
🏆7 Leagues
📈2+ Years Data
Verified Results

Performance

Cumulative profit from all verified value bets since Jan 2026

The Math Behind the Edge

We only bet when the numbers favor us. Here's how it works.

1

Model Predicts

Man Utd vs Liverpool
Our Model: 58% Over 2.5
Based on xG, form, H2H data
2

Compare to Odds

Pinnacle: 1.85 (54.1% implied)
Model 58% vs Market 54%
Edge: +3.9%
3

Value Bet Alert

❌ Edge 3.9% < 5% threshold
NO BET - insufficient edge

We only alert when edge ≥5%

💡 Most matches don't qualify. We average 3-5 value bets per day across 7 leagues. Selectivity is the point—we only bet when math favors us.

Specialized Markets

Focused expertise beats broad mediocrity

Over 2.5 Goals

Min Edge5%
Odds Range2.40 - 3.00
🎯

Both Teams to Score

Min Edge7%
Odds Range1.90 - 3.00
⚖️

Asian Handicap

Min Edge5%
Odds Range1.85 - 2.15

Leagues Covered

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League🇪🇸 La Liga🇮🇹 Serie A🇩🇪 Bundesliga🇫🇷 Ligue 1🇳🇱 Eredivisie🇵🇹 Primeira Liga🇮🇹 Serie B

Recent Bets

MatchMarketDateOddsScoreResultProfitCumulative
Hellas Verona vs LecceOVER 2.5Apr 252.720-0 LOST -1.00 +17.90
Arsenal vs Newcastle UnitedBTTSApr 251.921-0 LOST -1.00 +18.90
Getafe vs BarcelonaBTTSApr 251.930-2 LOST -1.00 +19.90
Parma vs PisaOVER 2.5Apr 252.611-0 LOST -1.00 +20.90
Lyon vs AuxerreBTTSApr 251.923-2 WON +0.92 +21.90
Real Sociedad vs GetafeOVER 2.5Apr 222.550-1 LOST -1.00 +20.98
Lecce vs FiorentinaBTTSApr 201.931-1 WON +0.93 +21.98
FC Porto vs TondelaBTTSApr 192.772-0 LOST -1.00 +21.05
OVER 2.5 Apr 25
Hellas Verona vs Lecce LOST
2.72
Odds
0-0
Score
-1.00
Profit
+17.90
Cumul.
BTTS Apr 25
Arsenal vs Newcastle United LOST
1.92
Odds
1-0
Score
-1.00
Profit
+18.90
Cumul.
BTTS Apr 25
Getafe vs Barcelona LOST
1.93
Odds
0-2
Score
-1.00
Profit
+19.90
Cumul.
OVER 2.5 Apr 25
Parma vs Pisa LOST
2.61
Odds
1-0
Score
-1.00
Profit
+20.90
Cumul.
BTTS Apr 25
Lyon vs Auxerre WON
1.92
Odds
3-2
Score
+0.92
Profit
+21.90
Cumul.
OVER 2.5 Apr 22
Real Sociedad vs Getafe LOST
2.55
Odds
0-1
Score
-1.00
Profit
+20.98
Cumul.
BTTS Apr 20
Lecce vs Fiorentina WON
1.93
Odds
1-1
Score
+0.93
Profit
+21.98
Cumul.
BTTS Apr 19
FC Porto vs Tondela LOST
2.77
Odds
2-0
Score
-1.00
Profit
+21.05
Cumul.

Frequently Asked Questions

EV betting means only placing bets where the true probability (calculated by our model) exceeds the implied probability from the odds. If our model says 55% chance but odds imply 50%, that's a +5% edge.

Win rate alone is meaningless. Our current 49.4% hit rate at average odds of 2.33 has generated +38.66 units across 257 bets. What matters is edge x odds — each winner returns significantly more than each loser costs.

Edge = Model Probability - (1 / Decimal Odds). We only alert when edge ≥5% for Over 2.5 and ≥7% for BTTS.

Pinnacle is the sharpest bookmaker with lowest margins. If we beat Pinnacle odds, we're beating the market. Other books often have even better odds.

We average 2.2 value bets per day across 7 leagues. 257 predictions published since January 2026. Most matches don't qualify — selectivity is the point.

No. We have mathematical edge, but edge ≠ guaranteed profit. Our model is currently +38.66 units, but you will have losing streaks. We recommend 1-2% bankroll per bet and a long-term mindset.

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